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Research that shapes mortality modeling

Research

Our team publishes original work on multi-population mortality forecasting, coherent projection methods, Bayesian longevity modeling, and climate-linked lifespan risk. We test new methodologies against historical data before they enter the curriculum.
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Researcher reviewing mortality projection models

Featured research

Recent papers and working notes on emerging questions in stochastic mortality

Our research program addresses questions that sit at the boundary of academic methodology and practitioner need. Current work includes coherent forecasting across European populations, Bayesian approaches to parameter uncertainty in longevity projections, and the emerging challenge of climate-linked mortality risk. Every paper is backtested against historical data before publication.

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Reference

Mortality modeling glossary

Key terms and concepts for practitioners working with stochastic longevity methods, from foundational mathematics to advanced forecasting techniques

Foundation

Poisson process

A counting process used to model the occurrence of deaths over time, where events happen independently at a constant average rate. It forms the probabilistic foundation for many mortality intensity models.

Research updates and contributions

Recent publications, conference presentations, university collaborations, and contributions to industry mortality tables and professional standards

Paper
Researcher presenting coherent mortality forecast paper

Coherent mortality forecasts for European pension systems

Working note
Bayesian mortality model analysis on screen

Bayesian approaches to longevity uncertainty quantification

Collaboration
Climate and mortality research collaboration

Climate factors in stochastic mortality projections

Standard
Mortality table standard revision meeting

Contributions to Irish mortality table revision

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